Nate Silver on Risk-takers, Politicians, and Poker Players | Conversations with Tyler
In his second appearance, Nate Silver joins the show to cover the intersections of predictions, politics, and poker with Tyler. They tackle how coin flips solve status quo bias, gambling’s origins in divination, what kinds of betting Nate would ban, why he’s been limited on several of the New York sports betting sites, how game theory changed poker tournaments, whether poker players make for good employees, running and leaving FiveThirtyEight, why funky batting stances have disappeared, AI’s impact on sports analytics, the most underrated NBA statistic, Sam Bankman-Fried’s place in “the River,” the trait effective altruists need to develop, the stupidest risks Tyler and Nate would take, prediction markets, how many monumental political decisions have been done under the influence of drugs, and more.
Recorded July 22nd, 2024
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Chapters (Powered by @danecjensen) –
00:00 – Nate Silver discusses risktaking, new book
00:24 – Millionaire Silicon Valley entrepreneur Peter Thiel
02:25 – Im happy when Im bored
03:17 – Energy, balance, and work goals for second half of life
04:12 – Hustle for longterm success
06:08 – Personality bias emotional, competitive, probabilistic
09:14 – Gambling edge, sports betting, and sites
11:09 – Gambling industry cynical and degenerate
14:53 – Longterm equilibrium DraftKings piggybacks on sharp sites
15:36 – Slot machines addictive, utilitarian, low income
16:53 – Pokers history with game theory and strategy
20:10 – Hedge fund hires expoker players with flaws
24:25 – During 538s transition from ESPN to ABC, constant frustration led to losses
26:37 – Incentivedriven work, boring sports
30:36 – Swinging for fences overrated or underrated?
30:47 – Luca Luca, Derek White, Jokic among underrated players
32:17 – AI will improve sports analytics
33:13 – Sports analytics NHL Stanley Cup winner, Florida Panthers assistant
33:29 – Transition in sports, underrated rebounding
35:07 – Team wins and circular logic in prediction markets
37:12 – Bill Clintons risktaking fraud
37:49 – Petersburg gambled with high risk of ruin
41:21 – Trumps BS detection abilities fit with river peoples analytical skills
43:04 – Analytical skills, street smarts, fathers influence
43:32 – Sovietologists dataanalyzing skills inspire US politics
44:48 – Risky activities submersible, helicopter, Costa Rica
47:04 – Hedge fund and poker players cheat death
51:52 – Psychedelics helpful or dangerous?
53:08 – Former President Jimmy Carter explains low partisanship in US politics
53:41 – A lot of bipartisanship, good times for US
54:01 – Election era high polarization, incumbency, comedy
58:42 – Demand for prediction markets may be shifting
01:01:44 – Rarest anagram types analytical, competitive
01:02:52 – Destinations Korea, Middle East, Israel
01:03:12 – Challenges with writing books
why is he not answering the question he is asked?
Why doesn’t this channel get more views?
Already have a feeling it’s gonna be a great one!